The Sahel: Birth of a Regional Bloc with Geopolitical Dimensions

Since achieving independence in the mid-20th century, many Sub-Saharan African nations have struggled to escape the lingering influence of external powers, which often seek to impose their political, social, religious, and economic agendas. This imbalance of global power creates loopholes that allow powerful entities to exploit the vulnerable, widening the gap between the strong and the weak.

In response, regional blocs have emerged across Africa, pursuing a vision of partial unity as a stepping stone toward a more unified continent. Visionary leaders like Anwar Sadat, Patrice Lumumba, and Modibo Keita championed this cause, striving to create a united front that could reclaim Africa's strength and autonomy. Examples of this pan-African drive include the Arab Maghreb Union in the north, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in the east, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in the west, alongside various other monetary and political unions.

West Africa: A Region in Flux

Recent years have witnessed an acceleration of events in West Africa, particularly in the coastal Sahel regions of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad. This transitional zone, situated between the Sahara Desert and the southern forests and savannas, is experiencing profound shifts. These include popular protests, military coups, the expulsion of French forces, and the growing influence of Russia, signalling a new era of evolving power dynamics.

ECOWAS and the Challenge of Coups

Following a wave of military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, ECOWAS responded by pressuring the military regimes to cede power to civilians and restore constitutional order. The bloc imposed sanctions, freezing financial assets and even threatening military intervention. These measures, however, triggered widespread street protests, with demonstrators denouncing what they perceived as unjust actions and expressing support for the new leaders.

Sahel States Withdraw from ECOWAS: A Break from the Past?

The leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger justified their withdrawal from ECOWAS as a necessary step towards fulfilling the popular desire to break free from colonial influence and foster a more harmonious political, social, and economic environment. ECOWAS, guided by its charters emphasizing democracy and good governance, sought to remove the military from power—a position the Sahel leaders resisted.

Some observers, however, view the withdrawal as a tactical manoeuvre aimed at extending the military leaders' rule without facing international and regional pressure, particularly the economically damaging sanctions imposed on their landlocked countries. Under the ECOWAS umbrella, they would be required to yield to an elected, civilian government operating under a constitution—a scenario the military rulers are unwilling to accept.

Despite attempts by ECOWAS, led by Senegalese President Macky Sall, to mediate and reverse this decision, official statements and speeches from Sahel leaders confirmed their commitment to withdrawing from the organisation.

A New Path for the Sahel Alliance

Since the coup that ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in 2020, the Sahel Alliance countries, under Mali's leadership, have forged a distinct diplomatic and political trajectory. The new military leaders have adopted a markedly different approach from previous regimes, characterized by bolder diplomatic rhetoric, stricter political and administrative decisions, and a heightened focus on military and security matters.

Why Integrate? The Liptako-Gourma Charter

A confluence of factors motivated these countries to pursue a unified approach, culminating in the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States through the Liptako-Gourma Charter on December 16, 2023. The primary objective of the Confederation is to establish a joint defense against security threats posed by jihadist or rebel movements, as well as any potential military attacks.

The urgency behind this alliance is underscored by the fact that Burkina Faso has reportedly lost three-quarters of its territory, with only the capital, Ouagadougou, and the city of Bobo-Dioulasso remaining under government control. Similarly, jihadist groups control significant portions of Mali, imposing Sharia law and perpetrating mass killings despite the presence of French and international military forces.

Furthermore, the Sahel countries sought to adopt unified political positions to strengthen the legitimacy of their sovereign decisions and to meet the popular demand for liberation from Western dependence, particularly from France, which has been accused of associating with corrupt politicians, enabling terrorist groups, and engaging with armed rebel movements. Mali has even called for France to be stripped of its pen-holding status at the UN.

Notable Achievements

The Alliance countries have achieved significant strategic goals in a relatively short period, surpassing ECOWAS's accomplishments over many years. In the security sphere, Malian authorities have extended their control over major cities and towns, including Kidal, a former rebel stronghold. This progress has reached the border town of Tinzawatene with Algeria, thanks to intelligence coordination with Niger and Burkina Faso. Moreover, Burkina Faso has facilitated the return of over 600,000 displaced people and refugees and reopened 1,000 schools.

Some observers, however, consider these military achievements to be questionable, citing the military regimes' secrecy and carefully curated presentation of information. Allegations of human rights violations by army personnel in conflict zones and a lack of transparency regarding the activities of terrorist groups further complicate the picture.

Despite these ambiguities, the restoration of order in remote towns and major cities remains a notable security achievement welcomed by the local populations. Supported by Russian aircraft and the African Legion, it is anticipatedthat governments will extend their control over the countryside.

The shift towards alliances with Russia, China, and Turkey has yielded positive outcomes, particularly in terms ofmilitary equipment and weapons. The Sahel countries have bolstered their military capabilities, acquiring aircraft, armoured vehicles, tanks, and drones, resulting in improved effectiveness on the ground and several successes.

However, the involvement of the Russian Legion in combat operations against terrorist or separatist movements remains a contentious issue. While the military invokes the principle of sovereignty, the participation of a private security company raises ethical concerns. The official narrative maintains that Russian soldiers are present solely for training purposes related to modern equipment.

Significant Challenges

Several challenges loom over the nascent confederation. These include:

• Guaranteeing the free movement of people and property: The ECOWAS bloc encompassed 15 countries with a combined population of over 300 million, granting citizens the right to move and reside within the region. With the withdrawal of the Sahel countries, it is crucial to establish legal mechanisms that ensure freedom of movement within the Confederation.

• Establishing a Unified Force: Plans are underway to create a joint military force of 5,000 personnel. However, this number is comparatively small given the scale of the security challenges posed by groups like ISIS, Al-Qaeda, the Macina Liberation Front, Ansar al-Islam, and Boko Haram, as well as rebel movements and criminal gangs.

• Maintaining Political Stability: The ruling regimes face internal pressure from political parties advocating for a return to constitutional governance and the organisation of elections. Such demands may lead to demonstrations that undermine political stability, even if the regimes currently enjoy broad popular support.
  

Conclusion: A Turning Point for Africa?

The Alliance of Sahel States represents a significant turning point for West Africa and the broader continent. It has served as a catalyst for demands for the withdrawal of foreign forces, a trend that has spread to other African nations. The Sahel countries have championed the concept of asserting a country's vision without deference to former colonial powers.

The Confederation enjoys broad popular support and derives its legitimacy from this backing. As long as governments continue to prioritize security, peace, and improved living conditions, the people will support the Confederation in its pursuit of a better future.

Download the full study here