The American Military Capital in Africa? Morocco, AFRICOM, and Washington's Strategic Pivot

With a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House on the horizon, a strategic pivot in U.S. foreign policy is underway, with major implications for Africa. During his first term, the partnership between the United States and Morocco—its most important non-NATO ally on the continent—gained significant momentum. This culminated in U.S. recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Rabat normalizing relations with Israel.

While the Biden administration paused the construction of a planned U.S. consulate in Dakhla, a second Trump presidency could reinvigorate this alliance. This has renewed speculation about a long-discussed plan: relocating the headquarters of the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) from Stuttgart, Germany, to Morocco.

Such a move would represent a monumental repositioning for Washington, granting it direct access to the heart of the Sahel via a stable partner. But it also raises critical questions about security, influence, and the future of great power competition in Africa.

More Than Just Counter-Terrorism: The Real Mission of AFRICOM

Established in 2007 in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, AFRICOM is the Pentagon’s unified command for military relations across 53 African nations. Officially, its mission is to help African partners respond to humanitarian crises, counter transnational terrorism, and promote regional stability.

But beneath the surface lie more pragmatic geopolitical calculations. A primary, though often unstated, objective is to secure the continent’s vast natural resources and counter the influence of strategic rivals. As Deputy Admiral Robert Moeller stated at a 2008 AFRICOM conference, protecting "the free flow of natural resources from Africa to the global market" was a fundamental guiding principle for the new command. He explicitly identified "oil supply disruptions, terrorism, and China's growing influence" as the core challenges to U.S. interests.

In a world increasingly defined by U.S.-China rivalry, Washington sees Africa as a critical chessboard. A 2020 AFRICOM report to Congress warned that China is transforming its military base in Djibouti into a power projection platform and using its economic investments to gain geopolitical influence. For the U.S., containing China’s "slow but steady trend towards the militarization and securitization of Africa" has become a central mission.

Morocco: Washington's Indispensable Ally

In this high-stakes environment, Morocco has actively positioned itself as an indispensable strategic partner. Its value to Washington has only grown following the 2023 military coup in Niger, which led to the loss of a critical U.S. airbase for counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel. Morocco offers a stable, reliable alternative.

Several factors make Morocco the ideal candidate:

• Proven Military Partnership: The annual "African Lion" maneuvers, the largest U.S. military exercise in Africa, are a testament to the deep military cooperation between the two nations. This partnership is reinforced by major arms sales, including recent deals for F-16 fighters, Reaper drones, and Apache helicopters, bolstering Morocco's role as a key security hub.

• Strategic Location and Influence: Morocco’s location provides a gateway to both the Atlantic and the Sahel. Its ambitious initiative to grant Sahel countries access to the Atlantic Ocean through large-scale infrastructure projects creates new avenues for cooperation on shared challenges, from drug trafficking to countering Russian mercenaries.

• A "Soft Power" Superpower: Rabat has proven its effectiveness in crisis diplomacy, mediating conflicts in Libya and Mali. This aligns perfectly with a potential Trump doctrine of avoiding "endless wars," allowing the U.S. to claim diplomatic victories without direct intervention.

The Diplomatic Tightrope: Navigating Alliances and Domestic Pressure

The U.S.-brokered normalization deal between Morocco and Israel was a diplomatic game-changer. However, it also placed Rabat in a delicate position. The Israel-Hamas war triggered massive pro-Palestinian demonstrations across Morocco, forcing the government to perform a careful balancing act: sending aid to Gaza and affirming Palestinian rights at the UN, all while maintaining diplomatic ties with Israel.

A potential Trump administration would likely pressure Morocco to upgrade its liaison office in Tel Aviv to a full embassy. While this would strengthen the U.S.-backed Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran, it would also test Rabat’s ability to manage domestic and regional pressures.

A Continent's Hesitation: Why No One Wants to Host AFRICOM

The proposal to move AFRICOM headquarters to Africa is not new, and it has been consistently met with resistance from African nations. Concerns over the erosion of national sovereignty, the security risks of hosting a major foreign military presence, and the historical sensitivities of colonialism create powerful opposition.

Even with strong incentives from the U.S., any African leader—including Morocco's—would face significant domestic and continental pressure to refuse. This deep-seated hesitation remains the single largest obstacle to any relocation plan.

Future Scenarios: A New American Headquarters in Africa?

Despite official denials from the Pentagon, AFRICOM's location in Germany is seen as a barrier to its effectiveness. Two primary scenarios exist for a potential move to Morocco.

• Scenario 1: A Bridge Too Far. Morocco declines to host the base. Its foreign policy is built on "soft power" and its role as a "pole of peace and security." Hosting a base for offensive operations could undermine its diplomatic credibility and be seen as a violation of its sovereignty, making refusal the most likely outcome.

• Scenario 2: The Deal is Done. If the transfer is confirmed, it would cement a new era in the U.S.-Morocco alliance. This would likely involve major American investment in projects aimed at restoring Morocco's leadership role in the Sahel. However, the move would require massive investment and complex logistics to transfer operations from Stuttgart.

Conclusion

Morocco stands out as a stable, strategic partner with the infrastructure and political will to deepen its military alliance with the United States. However, the prospect of relocating AFRICOM’s headquarters remains highly speculative. The political hurdles, both within Morocco and across the African continent, are immense.

Nevertheless, the evolving dynamics of the Sahel, combined with Washington’s shifting priorities under a potential new administration, will continue to fuel the debate. Whatever the outcome, Morocco will remain at the very heart of America's future defense strategy in Africa.

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