Sudan at a Crossroads: A Look at the Parallel Government and the Future of Conflict

This study examines the evolving geopolitical dynamics in Sudan, specifically focusing on the Rapid Support Forces'(RSF) attempt to form a parallel government and the implications for the ongoing conflict. The report offers a nuanced perspective on this evolving geopolitical dynamic.

The Parallel Government: A Sign of Weakness or a Power Play?

Since the beginning of 2025, Sudan has been embroiled in a devastating war between the Sudanese army and the RSF. Recent developments, including the RSF's announcement of its intention to form a parallel government in areas under its control, signal a significant shift in the conflict. This move, while seemingly an attempt to legitimize its military and political presence, comes at a time when the RSF is experiencing battlefield setbacks.

The RSF argues that a parallel government is necessary to counter the army's alleged "monopolization of power." However, this project faces considerable hurdles, including a lack of international recognition and internal divisions among Sudanese opposition leaders. Moreover, the RSF's position is further complicated by international accusations of grave violations against civilians, particularly in regions such as Darfur and White Nile. These accusations, which have led to sanctions from the United States, raise serious questions about the legitimacy and viability of the RSF's political ambitions.

Military Developments and Regional Support:

The RSF's political maneuvers are intrinsically linked to military developments on the ground. The Sudanese army has made notable gains, including regaining control of Wad Madani, Um Rawaba, and large parts of Khartoum Bahri. These victories have weakened the RSF's ability to impose a new political reality.

Despite these losses, the RSF continues to receive regional support, particularly from countries that view the continuation of the war as a means to protect their strategic interests in Sudan. This external backing allows the RSF to withstand setbacks, prolonging the conflict and complicating any potential path to peace.

The African Union's Role:

The Sudanese crisis was a key topic at the 38th African Union Summit in Addis Ababa. African leaders and international officials warned against the continued fighting and called for an end to hostilities and the delivery of humanitarian aid. While the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed proposals to condemn the RSF's rebellion, the summit also saw the attendance of Abdalla Hamdok, the former Sudanese prime minister, highlighting the complex web of actors involved in the conflict.

Key Objectives of the Parallel Government:

The RSF has outlined several objectives for its proposed parallel government:

• Achieving Security and Basic Services: The RSF aims to provide security and basic services to citizens in areas under its control, presenting itself as a viable alternative to the central government.

• Consolidating Political and Military Influence: The parallel government is a strategic step to solidify the RSF's presence as both a military and political actor.

• Strengthening Negotiating Position: By establishing a government, the RSF seeks to improve its leverage in future peace talks.
  

Obstacles and Disputes:

The parallel government project has been plagued by internal disputes, particularly over leadership positions. These disagreements have led to delays and threaten to derail the entire initiative. Despite these challenges, the RSF and some allied groups signed a political charter in Nairobi, outlining fundamental principles such as the secular and federal nature of the state.

National, Regional, and International Positions:

• Sudanese Government: The Sudanese government, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, firmly opposes the parallel government, viewing it as a threat to Sudan's unity and sovereignty.

• Sudanese Civil Forces: Sudanese civil forces are divided on the issue, with some supporting the initiative and others rejecting it as a move that would further complicate the crisis.

• Egypt: Egypt supports Sudan's official state institutions and rejects any attempts to form a parallel government.

• Kenya: Kenya has adopted a supportive stance toward the parallel government, hosting meetings and drawing criticism from the Sudanese government.

• United Nations: The United Nations has expressed deep concern, warning that this step could exacerbate the ongoing crisis.
  

Future Scenarios for Sudan:

The Sudanese scene is heading toward further complexity, as military and political factors intertwine in determining the future of the conflict. The study outlines several potential scenarios:

1. Escalation of Civil War and the Division of Sudan: This scenario would see the country split into two rival entities, prolonging the conflict and leading to further instability.

2. Victory of the Sudanese Army and the Political and Military Demise of the RSF: A military victory for the army could lead to the collapse of the RSF, but the risk of renewed conflict would remain.

3. Political Settlement and Power-Sharing: Under regional and international pressure, the two sides may be forced to enter negotiations, but deep mistrust makes this scenario unlikely.

4. International Intervention: International powers may intervene militarily or deploy peacekeeping forces, but this could face strong opposition from Sudanese parties.

5. State Collapse: Without fundamental solutions, Sudan could collapse into a collection of warring regions.

6. Collapse of the Parallel Government Project: Internal divisions could lead to the collapse of the parallel government project before it fully materializes.
   

Conclusion:

The formation of a parallel government in Sudan remains a contentious step with profound implications. As the conflict continues and the humanitarian situation worsens, Sudan stands at a crossroads. Intensified international and regional efforts are needed to find a sustainable solution that ends the cycle of violence and establishes a comprehensive peace.

Download the full study here.

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African Narratives, a Pan-African non-profit think tank and policy research organization, is committed to reshaping the global understanding of Africa while addressing the continent's most pressing challenges. With a core focus on democracy, security, energy, economic development, and human rights, African Narratives amplifies African voices and perspectives to foster informed discourse, inspire innovative solutions, and promote sustainable progress.