Sahel Becomes New Focal Point in Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Rivalry

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new, intensified phase. Reports in August 2024 indicated a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, while Russian forces continued their advances along the eastern front in Donbas and maintained pressure around Kharkiv. These military escalations on European soil are now echoing in a seemingly distant theatre: Africa’s Sahel region.

Recent developments, notably Mali and Niger severing diplomatic ties with Ukraine, signal that the Sahel is becoming an increasingly important focal point in the broader geopolitical contest. These moves followed allegations that Kyiv supported armed groups in an attack against Malian army formations and allied Wagner forces in July 2024, an incident reportedly resulting in substantial casualties – 47 Malian soldiers and 84 Wagner members, marking a significant toll since Wagner's reported arrival in Mali in 2021.

This raises critical questions: Is the Sahel evolving into a direct arena for the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Or is Ukraine’s role in Africa primarily a proxy for Western nations aiming to regain influence and counter Russia's expanding footprint? Let'sexplore the key dimensions of this unfolding situation.

Escalating Tensions in a Volatile Region

The heightened situation in the Sahel has sparked international concern about the Russia-Ukraine war potentially spillingover. Several factors contribute to these fears:

• Renewed Intensity in the Russia-Ukraine War: The Sahel crisis coincides with intensified military operations between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine's reported advance into Russia's Kursk region marked a notable incursion, potentially strengthening Kyiv's hand in any future ceasefire negotiations, which some speculate could follow the US Presidential Elections.

• Diplomatic Ruptures: The decision by the military leadership in Niger and Mali to cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine directly followed statements attributed to Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence. These remarks concerned the late-July military operation against Malian and Wagner forces. Ukraine’s ambassador in Dakar also reportedly shared Yusov’s comments, prompting Senegalese authorities to seek clarification. Meanwhile, Burkina Faso expressed solidarity with Mali, deploying troops to assist against insurgencies.

• Ukraine's Diplomatic Push in Africa: Concurrently, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba undertook an African tour (August 4-8), visiting Zambia, Malawi, and Mauritius. This initiative aimed to bolster ties and garner support in international forums, as Kyiv expands its diplomatic presence with new embassies on the continent.

• US Military Withdrawal: On August 5, the U.S. Department of Defense confirmed the completion of its military withdrawal from Niger, ending its counterterrorism operations there. Growing tensions between Niamey and Washington reportedly made the continuation of the US mission, which supported Nigerien forces against jihadist groups, untenable.

• Declining French Influence: France's standing in Africa has visibly diminished amidst rising anti-French sentiment. Military transitions in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea have seen these nations reduce ties with French-aligned entities. Public demonstrations increasingly oppose French involvement, often alongside expressions of support for Russia, viewed by some as an alternative to fill the vacuum.

Why Did Sahel States Break Ties? Unpacking the Motives

While the economic ties between Ukraine and Sahel countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are limited, the decision to sever diplomatic relations carries significant weight. Several factors appear to underpin this hostility:

• Alleged Ukrainian Involvement: Statements attributed to Andrii Yusov suggested Kyiv provided intelligence to rebel groups for their attack on Malian and Wagner forces. Reports also indicated that Ukraine’s diplomatic corps welcomed the operation. This fuelled suspicions in Bamako of a direct link between Ukraine and armed groups, leading to the diplomatic break.

• Defence of Sovereignty: Mali has asserted its refusal to allow its territory to become a battleground for foreign powers like Ukraine and Russia, viewing such actions as an extension of external geopolitical rivalries. This stance serves as a warning to international and regional actors.

• Concealing Military Setbacks? Some observers suggest the Malian transitional government's decision might be an attempt to divert attention from military defeats. Blaming external actors could be a strategy to manage security threats and highlight perceived ongoing European support for insurgents, especially after French and USwithdrawals.

• Signalling Support for Russia: The move by Mali and Niger strongly signals their alignment with Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. It also frames Ukraine, in their view, as a state backing terrorism, potentially damaging Kyiv’s international standing and hindering its efforts to counter Russian influence in Africa.

• Sustained Anti-European Sentiment: These developments reflect a broader rejection of European influence in the Sahel. Since the wave of military coups beginning in Mali in 2020, relations with Western powers (France, US, EU) have soured. These Sahelian nations are increasingly looking to new partners like Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran, aiming to reverse what they perceive as decades of European exploitation.

Key International and Regional Reactions

The unfolding crisis has elicited varied responses:

• ECOWAS: The Economic Community of West African States condemned foreign interference in Mali’s internal affairs and any attempts to draw the region into geopolitical confrontations, also denouncing the reported terrorist attack.

• Russia: Moscow accused Ukrainian authorities of attempting to open new fronts by supporting terrorist organisations in Africa, claiming Kyiv is resorting to backing extremist groups to undermine Russian interests after battlefield setbacks.

• Ukraine: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry rejected Mali’s allegations and condemned the decision to sever ties as"hasty and short-sighted." Kyiv reiterated its opposition to Russian aggression and its commitment to international law, including supporting African nations’ sovereignty.

• France (Reported): A Russian news outlet cited a high-ranking French military official on LCI television stressing the need for Paris to support Ukraine in countering Russian influence in Africa, including financial aid to Kyiv.

• Sweden: Sweden’s Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade announced a review of its aid strategy for Mali, potentially cutting assistance. In response, Malian authorities reportedly gave the Swedish ambassador 72 hours to leave the country, deeming Sweden's stance "hostile."

Russia's Strategic Capitalisation on the Crisis

The tensions between Sahel countries and Ukraine present Moscow with opportunities to enhance its engagement with Africa, a continent of growing strategic importance:

• Revitalising Russia-Africa Relations: Russia aims to expand its political, economic, and strategic presence, viewing Africa as a crucial player in the emerging global order, aligning with President Putin's geopolitical vision.

• Expanding Economic Cooperation: Moscow seeks to increase trade (reportedly $18 billion in 2022, compared to China's $254 billion and the EU's $295 billion) and investment in African infrastructure, energy, and natural resources. This could help diversify trade partners and strengthen the ruble.

• Enhancing Arms Exports: Africa is a significant market for Russian military hardware. Russia reportedly accounts for 40% of Africa’s arms imports, making it the continent's largest supplier (ahead of the US at 16%, France at 8%, and China at 1%). The Wagner Group also acts as both a security contractor and an informal tool of Russian foreign policy.

• Leveraging African Voting Power: Africa’s 54-nation voting bloc in international forums is a key asset. Moscow is keen to strengthen these alliances for diplomatic backing.

• Supporting Africa's UNSC Bid: Russia's support for Africa’s push for permanent UN Security Council representation and greater G20 involvement helps solidify partnerships.

• Countering Terrorism: Russia positions itself as a reliable partner in combating terrorism for some African governments, committing to supplying weapons (sometimes reportedly free of charge) and expanding military cooperation through intelligence-sharing and security assistance.

Potential Implications: Ripples Across the Continent and Beyond

The diplomatic fallout between Ukraine and these Sahel states carries several potential repercussions:

• Increased Internal Instability: Tensions may exacerbate instability in the Sahel, particularly in Mali. Recent defeats could highlight regime weaknesses and raise public concerns about security capabilities, potentially undermining the legitimacy of ruling military governments.

• Escalated Anti-Western Sentiment: The crisis could fuel further hostility towards some Western nations, with Sahel states potentially promoting narratives of Western destabilisation efforts. This may intensify calls for disengagement from the West.

• Strengthened Regional Alliances: The situation underscores the significance of the Sahelian tripartite alliance (Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali). Tensions could draw these states closer, enhancing their regional influence and potentially attracting new members.

• Damage to Ukraine’s Reputation in Africa: If Sahel states successfully portray Ukraine as a supporter of terrorism in certain circles, it could damage Kyiv's standing and hinder its diplomatic outreach on the continent, benefiting Moscow.

• Exacerbated Hostilities with Western Nations: Accusations against Ukraine could provoke strong reactions from Western countries, further deepening the rift between these Sahel states and the West, potentially benefiting other global players like Iran, Russia, and China.

Conclusion: A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

These developments signal a growing competition between Russia and Ukraine for influence in Africa. This is particularly acute as the United States and its Western allies seek to regain a foothold after withdrawals from some Sahel and Sahara countries, while Russia actively strengthens its own position. The result could be further escalation between Kyiv and Moscow over their respective roles in the African Sahel.

Compared to Russia's strategic advances, Ukraine's influence in Africa remains limited. Moscow has effectively expanded its presence through economic partnerships, support for certain political transitions, military agreements, and high-level diplomacy. Russia has also sought to portray Ukraine as a Western proxy, a new form of colonialism, capitalising on the declining influence of powers like France and the US.

Kyiv, conversely, faces significant challenges. Its presence on the continent appears to lack a clear, comprehensive strategy to consolidate influence, especially when contrasted with Russia’s more assertive approach. Moscow has adeptly seized upon the West’s partial retreat, positioning itself as a strong partner for some regional states and a supporter of African development across various sectors. The Sahel, it seems, is set to remain a critical arena in this evolving global power struggle.

Download full study here.