Government Failure and Civil War: Conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region

Ethiopia is facing a critical juncture as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's policies have significantly impacted the nation's security, stability, and unity, plunging it into a series of domestic and external conflicts. A new study by Ghada Kamal, an African Affairs Expert, delves into these issues, highlighting the government's challenges in managing ethnic diversity and its pursuit of regional dominance, raising concerns about Ethiopia's future and its role in the Horn of Africa.

Key Takeaways:

• Failed Governance: Despite efforts to centralize governance, Abiy Ahmed's administration has struggled to effectively manage the country, leading to escalating domestic and external conflicts.

• Regional Instability: The ruling regime's pursuit of regional influence has raised concerns among neighboringcountries, who now perceive Addis Ababa's policies as aggressive and a threat to regional security.

• Escalating Conflicts: Ethiopia has experienced significant political and security instability under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, resulting in increased armed conflicts between the federal government and various armed groups, most notably in the Amhara region.

• Risk of Fragmentation: The study warns that the persistence of current policies could lead to continued crises and wars, potentially resulting in Ethiopia's fragmentation unless the government shifts away from its provocative approach.

The Amhara Conflict: A Deep Dive

The conflict in the Amhara region between the Fano militia and the government is a direct consequence of the approach to governing the country, exacerbating existing internal crises. The Fano militia, initially allies of the federal government in the Tigray conflict, have now turned against the state, posing a major threat to national stability. This shift is rooted in several direct and indirect factors:

Direct Motives:

• Disarmament of the Amhara Special Forces: The federal government's decision to dissolve the Amhara Special Forces and integrate them into the federal army was met with resistance, with the Fano militia viewing it as an attempt to weaken the Amhara people.

• Lack of Trust: The withdrawal of federal troops during the Tigray War without consulting regional leaders deepened distrust between Amhara forces and the federal government.

• Exclusion from Peace Talks: The exclusion of Amhara representatives from the Pretoria peace negotiations with the TPLF further alienated the group.

Indirect Motives:

• Threat to Centralized Governance: Fano's growing influence as a defender of Amhara rights clashes with Abiy Ahmed's centralization agenda.

• Rising Violence Against Amhara Communities: Reports of human rights violations and government inaction during attacks on Amhara communities have fueled resentment.

• Political Marginalization: The failure to address historical territorial disputes and promises of political representation has further alienated the Amhara.

Abiy Ahmed's Policies: Deepening the Crisis

Since assuming office, Abiy Ahmed's policies have exacerbated Ethiopia's internal and external challenges.

Internal Crises:

• Political Turmoil: Initial democratic reforms have given way to widespread unrest, including Oromo protests, the Tigray War, and the Amhara conflict, triggering political and economic turmoil.

• Rising Ethnic Conflicts: Despite attempts to mitigate ethnic tensions, conflicts have worsened, culminating in the Tigray War and the ongoing Amhara conflict.

• Economic Decline: Continuous conflicts have strained national resources, leading to infrastructure damage, casualties, and displacement, pushing Ethiopia into a debt crisis.

External Crises:

• GERD Dispute: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remains a contentious issue with Egypt and Sudan, with Ethiopia's unilateral actions heightening tensions.

• Al-Fashqa Border Dispute: The border dispute with Sudan over the Al-Fashqa region remains unresolved, leading to military skirmishes.

• Somaliland Port Agreement: The deal with Somaliland granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea coast has sparked regional controversy and international criticism.

Future Outlook: Potential Scenarios

The study outlines three potential scenarios for Ethiopia's future:

1. Military Option: The government attempts to achieve a decisive military victory over Fano, which could escalate the conflict and destabilize the country further.

2. Negotiation Scenario: The government seeks a peace agreement with Fano, similar to the Pretoria Agreement, to reduce tensions, though this faces challenges due to deep-seated mistrust.

3. Fano's Victory: Fano gains ground and overthrows the regime, potentially leading to fragmentation and deeper chaos in Ethiopia.

Conclusion: A Call for Change

The study concludes that continuing Abiy Ahmed's current policies could have severe consequences for Ethiopia and the wider region. Unless the government abandons its confrontational approach and acknowledges Ethiopia's internal complexities, the country will remain trapped in cycles of conflict and instability. The study highlights the urgent need for wise policies that address historical factors and the sensitivities associated with Ethiopia's ethnic diversity.

Download the full study here.