Ethiopia and Eritrea: A Volatile Peace and the Future of Regional Stability

The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains one of the most complex and consequential in the Horn of Africa, significantly contributing to regional instability, according to a new study by African Narratives. Historically marked by conflict, relations have fluctuated since Eritrea's independence in 1993. While a 2018 peace agreement offered hope, renewed tensions, particularly following the 2022 Pretoria Agreement between Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), have underscored the fragility of the peace.

This analysis examines the key factors driving these tensions and their impact on security and stability in the Horn of Africa, exploring the potential future trajectory of Ethiopian-Eritrean relations. The persistently strained ties between Asmara and Addis Ababa contribute markedly to the instability of a region already grappling with multiple conflicts and competing interests, posing a significant threat to regional countries and broader African peace and security.

Drivers of Renewed Tension

Several key factors contribute to the volatile situation:

1. Ethiopia's Pursuit of Red Sea Access: Eritrea's 1993 independence left Ethiopia landlocked. Access to vital Red Sea waterways remains a strategic priority for Addis Ababa, irrespective of the government in power, and is a persistent source of tension. In October 2023, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reiterated this ambition, linking it to Ethiopia's economic, security, and demographic needs for its population of approximately 120 million. He indicated in November 2023 before the Ethiopian parliament that failure to achieve this goal could lead to conflict, suggesting a potential military solution for what Addis Ababa considers an existential issue. This pursuit raises concerns among neighbours, particularly Eritrea, which lost Ethiopia access to the sea upon independence. Even Ethiopia securing access via an agreement with Somaliland creates friction, potentially reducing Djibouti's revenue from Ethiopian trade and creating a perceived power imbalance with Eritrea if Ethiopia develops naval capabilities.

2. The Pretoria Agreement and Eritrean Exclusion: The November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, aimed at ending the war between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF, excluded Eritrea, a key participant in the conflict alongside federal forces. During the Tigray War, Addis Ababa and Asmara formed a strategic alliance against the TPLF. The agreement undermined Eritrea's objective of eliminating the TPLF, which it regards as a national security threat, thereby fuelling tension with Ethiopia.

3. Alleged Ethiopian Support for Eritrean Opposition and Hostile Statements: Addis Ababa's alleged support for Eritrean opposition groups and critical rhetoric are cited as major contributors to tension. Notably, Ethiopia hosted a conference for the "Bergid Nahmado" movement, described as a prominent and confrontational group opposing the Eritrean government. This event, requiring Addis Ababa's approval, signals heightened tensions. Furthermore, hostile statements, such as those attributed to former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome (elsewhere cited as Chiume in the original text), who described Eritrea as a major threat to regional peace and security, allegedly stating “war is the main concern of the Eritrean state... inciting conflicts, supporting rebels, or governments seeking war and division, is the main reason behind the existence of the Eritrean state,” exacerbate the situation. Such actions and rhetoric contribute to a climate where conflict remains a persistent risk.

The Tigray War's Lingering Impact

Eritrea's intervention in the Tigray conflict (starting November 2020) highlighted complex regional dynamics. Despite the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, tensions persist, partly due to the alleged continued presence of Eritrean forces and accusations of interference.

• Political and Military Involvement: Eritrea has been accused of supporting armed factions within Tigray. Some Tigrayan military leaders, aligned with the TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael, are reportedly working with the Eritrean government, which allegedly pledged support in case of renewed conflict with the federal government. Eritrea denies these accusations, terming them "incitement to war" and part of a campaign to damage its image. Former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome stated, “Eritrea is adopting a policy of interfering in the affairs of its neighbors to advance its geopolitical interests.”

• Economic Exploitation Allegations: Eritrean interference is also alleged in the economic sphere, particularly involving the smuggling of gold extracted from Tigray into Eritrea. Reports suggest some military leaders control illegal gold mining and smuggling operations, with estimates of up to two tonnes smuggled annually. This potentially funds armed groups and provides revenue for Eritrea amid international sanctions, hindering Tigray's economic development.

• Shortcomings of the 2018 Peace Deal: The 2018 Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement, facilitated by Abiy Ahmed upon taking office, faced challenges. The TPLF reportedly viewed it with suspicion and showed little enthusiasm for implementation. The agreement's fragility was exposed, partly because it was perceived as a personal deal between leaders, marginalising local stakeholders and failing to address core issues like border demarcation and trade. Cracks appeared when Abiy unilaterally withdrew Ethiopian forces from parts of Tigray in June 2021, leaving Eritrean forces behind. The subsequent Pretoria Agreement's exclusion of key players like Eritrea and Amhara forces left potential instability unresolved.

• Military Mobilisation: Reflecting the high alert, Eritrea has reportedly mobilised forces, calling up men under 60 for service and imposing travel restrictions, raising concerns about potential reignition of conflict in Tigray.

• Worsening Humanitarian Situation: Insecurity has recently increased in Tigray, fuelling fears of renewed violence among residents. The region faces a severe humanitarian crisis with shortages of food and medicine, soaring prices (fuel reportedly costing 300 birr per litre on the black market, a 200% increase), and significant internal displacement.

Broader Regional Context and Future Outlook

The Ethiopia-Eritrea dynamic unfolds amidst wider regional instability: civil war in Sudan, fragility in Somalia, and rising extremism across the Sahel. Ethiopia itself faces tense relations with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and with Somalia over the Somaliland port deal. A return to conflict in Tigray could exacerbate this instability, potentially emboldening extremist groups and disrupting global trade.

The future of Ethiopian-Eritrean relations hinges on several factors: Ethiopia's pursuit of sea access versus Eritrean security concerns; the influence of regional and international actors pursuing their own interests; and the potential for continued mutual interference through support for opposing factions.

Addressing the outstanding issues requires a comprehensive approach focused on dialogue, enhanced regional cooperation, respect for national sovereignty, and the inclusion of local parties in settlements. Without genuine political will from both sides to overcome historical challenges and build balanced cooperation, the risk of conflict persists, threatening the security of both nations and the wider Horn of Africa. International human rights organisations have also accused Eritrean forces of serious abuses during the Tigray conflict, and the UN has called for their withdrawal.

Conclusion

This study highlights the negative consequences of the unresolved Ethiopian-Eritrean tensions for Horn of Africa stability. Conflicting ambitions, military interventions, and exclusive political agreements exacerbate the situation. The international community should prioritise facilitating enhanced dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea to address outstanding issues and support efforts towards lasting peace and stability in this critical region.

Download the full study here.