Africa's Climate Future: Navigating Challenges After a U.S. Paris Agreement Withdrawal

Africa stands at a critical juncture, facing the severe and escalating impacts of climate change despite contributing minimally to global emissions. The continent is already grappling with droughts, floods, and resource scarcity, which threaten not only food and water security but also peace and stability. This complex situation could be further complicated by shifts in global climate policy, particularly the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement.

This post explores the potential ramifications for Africa, drawing on key insights from our latest study.

The Intensifying Climate Challenge in Africa

The reality of climate change is stark for Africa. Though responsible for less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the continent suffers disproportionately. Consider these figures:

• Approximately 2 million people are internally displaced in Somalia and Ethiopia due to climate impacts.

• Around 100,000 people have been displaced in Cameroon due to water-related conflicts.

• An estimated 30 million people compete for dwindling resources in the Lake Chad Basin.

• About 400 million people in Africa lack access to clean drinking water.

• By 2025, an estimated 330 million people will face water scarcity, and 460 million will experience water stress.

These are not just statistics; they represent profound human suffering and significant obstacles to development. The consequences ripple outwards, exacerbating poverty, fuelling conflict, and driving migration.

A U.S. Paris Agreement Withdrawal: Potential Repercussions for Africa

Our study considers a scenario where the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement in January 2025. As one of the world's largest historical emitters and a key contributor to climate finance, such a move could significantly weaken global efforts to combat climate change. For Africa, the implications could be particularly severe:

• Reduced Climate Financing: A U.S. withdrawal could lead to a substantial decrease in the financial and technical support available to African nations. This funding is crucial for adaptation projects, such as improving water management, developing drought-resistant agriculture, and transitioning to renewable energy. Without it, many vital initiatives could stall.

• Heightened Security Threats: Climate change acts as a "threat multiplier." Worsening environmental conditions – drought, desertification, resource scarcity – can create fertile ground for instability. Terrorist groups, such as Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab, may exploit these hardships to recruit individuals and expand their influence, further destabilising fragile regions. The Lake Chad Basin, for example, has seen groups exploit the vacuum created by climate-induced displacement.

• Increased Instability and Displacement: The Horn of Africa, Sudan, and the Sahel are already experiencing significant internal displacement and refugee flows due to climate impacts. A reduction in support for adaptation and mitigation could intensify these crises, leading to more environmental refugees and escalating conflicts over scarce resources like water and arable land.

• Erosion of Global Commitments: A U.S. withdrawal might signal a weakening of international resolve, potentially encouraging other nations to relax their climate commitments. This could accelerate the negative impacts of climate change globally, with Africa bearing a heavy burden.

Africa's Response: Agenda 2063 and the Path Forward

Despite these challenges, Africa is not standing still. The African Union's Agenda 2063 provides a continental framework for inclusive growth and sustainable development. A key aspiration is to build a prosperous Africa, which inherently requires addressing climate change.

However, Africa's own development trajectory presents a complex picture. As living standards improve and populations grow, carbon emissions are projected to rise:

• By 2043, Africa's emissions could increase by 297 million tons.

• The continent's share of global emissions might rise from its current low level (around 4-9% depending on different data points in the original study) to 12% by 2043, and potentially 30% by 2063.

• Projections suggest Africa’s emissions could surpass those of the EU by 2030, the U.S. by 2039, India by 2046, and China by 2056 if current trends continue without significant intervention.

To counter this and ensure climate change does not derail development, integrating climate risk management into all strategies is essential. This includes:

• Comprehensive risk assessment.

• Building resilient infrastructure.

• Adopting climate-smart agriculture and sustainable water management.

• Diversifying energy sources with a focus on renewables.

International cooperation remains vital. African nations aim to secure approximately $1.3 trillion annually by 2030 to address climate change, with $220 billion per year needed for the least-developed countries. Initiatives like the "Loss and Damage Fund" launched at COP27 are steps in the right direction, but sustained and increased financial support, on concessional terms that do not worsen debt burdens, is crucial.

Looking Ahead: A Call for Collective Action

The future of climate change in Africa is an existential challenge that demands a united and decisive global response. While the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement poses significant risks, it also underscores the need for Africa to redouble its own efforts and strengthen partnerships.

By investing in renewable energy, enhancing climate adaptation, adopting green technologies, and fostering regional cooperation through frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Africa can build resilience and pursue sustainable development.

The international community, including developed nations and rapidly growing economies, must uphold and expand their commitments to climate finance and technology transfer. Africa must be at the heart of global climate efforts, not as a passive recipient of aid, but as an active partner in shaping a sustainable future for all.

Download the full study here.